Texas housing remains strong, with risk scores below 140, which means that there's less than a 14% chance that our markets will decline over the next two years, vs. California, Arizona, Florida and Nevada metros that predict at least a 50% or more chance that their housing prices will decline over the next two years. This may help buyers understand that Texas is the place to buy. According to the scale, the risk factor for Houston is about 8% according.
The top 50 major metros rated by their risk of a decline in the next two years , by Marilyn Lewis
PMI Mortgage Insurance Co.'s new U.S. Market Risk Index tries to assess the future direction of markets across the U.S. by looking at recent price volatility, affordability (including per-capita income, appreciation and mortgage rates) and employment, among other factors.
On average, there's a 34.6% chance that home prices will drop in the nation's top 50 markets in the next couple years, with many of the riskiest markets falling in areas that saw steep run-ups in prices in recent years, followed by decreased affordability and drops in the rate of appreciation.
The risk scores for the top 50 major metros are listed as whole numbers in the table below. A score of 652 means there is a 65.2% chance that market will decline over the next two years.
Metropolitan statistical area
*Risk score
Annual house price appreciation
1st qtr 2007 (in %)
1st qtr 2006 (in %)
% change
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.
652
4.14
21.64
-17.49
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottdale, Ariz.
646
4.52
37.33
-32.81
Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev.
614
1.69
16.08
-14.39
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, Fla.
607
-2.16
28.12
-30.28
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, Calif.
586
4.82
23.57
-18.76
Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, Calif.
577
0.85
19.85
-19.01
Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, Calif.
572
-0.90
18.63
-19.53
Orlando-Kissimmee, Fla.
563
7.94
32.52
-24.59
Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, Calif.
560
-4.41
12.98
-17.39
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, Calif.
555
-1.92
8.20
-10.12
Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, Fla.
542
2.68
29.38
-26.70
Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, Fla.
524
11.44
28.70
-17.26
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla.
506
5.11
26.74
-21.64
Boston-Quincy, Mass.
501
-1.32
5.45
-6.76
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md.-W.Va.
500
3.65
21.67
-18.03
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif.
491
2.28
17.56
-15.28
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C.
476
7.88
22.01
-14.14
Nassau-Suffolk, N.Y.
445
2.25
12.91
-10.66
San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, Calif.
411
1.32
14.83
-13.51
Baltimore-Towson, Md.
400
6.64
19.94
-13.30
Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, R.I.-Mass.
397
0.85
9.13
-8.27
Jacksonville, Fla.
394
7.46
21.95
-14.49
Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, Ore.-Wash.
389
11.00
21.46
-10.46
Edison, N.J.
362
2.21
14.97
-12.76
Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, Wash.
343
12.56
18.62
-6.06
Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, Mass.
336
-0.50
4.41
-4.90
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wisc.
322
1.69
6.59
-4.90
New York-White Plains-Wayne, N.Y.-N.J.
322
3.93
16.07
-12.15
Newark-Union, N.J.-Pa.
314
3.63
13.65
-10.02
Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn, Mich.
284
-2.98
1.20
-4.18
Philadelphia
237
5.63
13.72
-8.08
Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, Mich.
236
-1.75
1.36
-3.12
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, Ga.
212
4.02
4.85
-0.83
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wis.
189
3.42
7.83
-4.41
St. Louis, Mo.-Ill.
182
4.22
7.17
-2.95
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, Tenn.
177
8.32
9.02
-0.69
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, Ill.
175
5.07
10.66
-5.59
Denver-Aurora, Colo.
156
1.09
3.12
-2.03
Austin-Round Rock, Texas
136
10.94
7.63
3.32
Kansas City, Mo.-Kan.
136
2.51
4.71
-2.20
Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, N.C.-S.C.
125
8.47
6.06
2.41
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, Ohio
121
-0.31
2.29
-2.60
San Antonio, Texas
102
10.53
9.31
1.22
Cincinnati-Middletown, Ohio-Ken.-Ind.
97
2.27
3.99
-1.72
Columbus, Ohio
93
0.97
3.61
-2.63
Indianapolis-Carmel, Ind.
84
2.31
3.07
-0.76
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, Texas
79
5.93
5.52
0.41
Dallas-Plano-Irving, Texas
75
3.66
3.80
-0.14
Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas
74
4.02
3.43
0.59
Pittsburgh
64
2.66
5.22
-2.57
NOTES: *For the first quarter 2007; **Scores show risk of home values falling in 2009 in all U.S. metropolitan statistical areas and divisions. Risk index scores are whole numbers. By moving the decimal one point to the left, they are expressed as the % chance of dropping prices. For example, Riverside has a risk score of 652 --- a 65.2% chance home values will fall in two years. Also shown: appreciation in first quarters of 2006 and 2007. Source: PMI Mortgage Insurance Co.
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